The Conversations

After a wonderful week last week in Scandinavia I have enjoyed an equally wonderful week in the the UK.  Although the scenery is not as spectacular, the conversations are just as stimulating and rewarding. I need to spend time drawing all the threads together to discern the weak signals that are emerging. Since that can sometimes take a while I thought you may enjoy hearing about the meetings, and following up some of this material and some of these people yourself. This is a bit long, so I do beg your indulgence.

First up was Rohit Talwar, who I met last week in Aalesund at the Innotown conference.  I was attracted to Rohit because of some comments he made at the conference about the kind of person we need to be in the future.  ”Wither to humanity?” I wondered to myself, in the light of technological advances. Rohit focuses on trying to get people and organisations to make sense of where they are going, rather than where they have come from. This is an important distinction and one that would serve us well to consider in decision making. Case studies, benchmarking, focus groups, … tend to be rear view mirror planning. It is much harder to consider a range of possible scenarios and to have a concrete plan for how we would achieve our goals under each of those scenarios.

This conversation provided a natural segue into the next meeting with Julia Goga-Cookes of Hot Spots Movement to discuss the future of work, a project being run out of the London Business School under Professor Lynda Gratton.  Lynda has identified 5 forces that will impact work in the future: Technology, Globalisation, Demography, Society and Low Carbon.  The Future of Work project integrated business and academia to create an open research project that empowered cross fertilisation between the participants. This was run by Lynda and Julia in a way that created a positive learning spiral with ever increasing knowledge. It is a very interesting model for focused learning drawing on the wisdom of the group. At the same time as holding this project together Julia is involved with hotspots – a separate venture to ignite the spark in organisations. The Future of Work project is about to embark on the next phase and is looking for emerging leaders from influential organisations to participate.

Major General Patrick Cordingley (ret) commanded the 7th Armoured Brigade, the Desert Rats during the first Gulf War. We met over breakfast at the Cavalry Club, and after the pleasantries I asked him “How do you lead people, and continue to make effective decisions, in the midst of battle when everything is going pear shaped and where every decision could create unknown and unintended consequences? In short, how do you lead in times of uncertainty?” What followed was a mix of military history, war stories, and insights from leadership in often dire circumstances. We were joined at one stage by another Major General who had been part of Patrick’s team, giving me an opportunity to broaden the perspectives.

The key insight I believe was the ability to make effective decisions.  Patrick remarked that training was not just about warfare and tactics and equipment. Training was about decision making and learning how to make decisions. Decisions are documented, analysed, unpacked, reviewed, tested, following a standard procedure (which I will write up elsewhere into a document on decision making). What struck me was how valuable this would be in business. It also reminded me of Peter Drucker’s exhortation to document decision making in order to learn how good you are at making decisions – and to avoid the human tendency to rewrite history around the results you get (which may not be those you expected).  Drucker suggests documenting – at the time – why are you making a decision, the environment in which you are making that decision, the alternatives you considered and why you chose what you did, and what you expect to happen and when.

Decisions are based on achieving some objective, on what Patrick called the Mission. He observed that once the Mission is clearly understood – prior to going into action – then subsequent decisions can be made in the light of completing the Mission, rather than getting distracted from the Mission. This focus, combined with an established decision making process (which includes the subsequent review of decisions), enables effective responses in escalating uncertainty. My observations of decision making processes in businesses leaves me in little doubt that we could learn from this. I know the large majority document decisions, but even when we do it is not necessarily clearly understood or agreed to – even by participants in the same meeting. Is it any wonder that we can agree to do something and then 6 months later have achieved nothing?

Jonathan Chocqueel-Mangan says this proves a decision was not really made in the first place – we in fact decided to do nothing, but just didn’t know it at the time. Jonathan is doing doctoral research into decision making in organisations. He pointed out that there are always at least 2 choices – act or not act.  Not acting is a choice, which is a consequence of a decision. I can decide that today is a WhiteSpace day – no internet, no email. Finding myself checking email indicates I actually made a different decision. This has profound implications for organisations and leaders.  As our conversation was finishing Jonathan remarked on the role of quality thinking, to facilitate quality decision making.

Ian Pearson was his normal stimulating self – or perhaps I should say mind-boggling.  Ian and I have been having an occasional dialogue over 3 years about technological trends, he as the master and me as the wide-eyed student. Although a conversation with Ian quickly ranges across any aspect of technology, governance, politics, culture, trends, … it is always in the context of technology and advance. Check out his blog for some of his predictions.  One that fascinates me is the capability to upgrade our IQ. Imagine being able to plug in a chip – a pacemaker for the brain – that upgrades your IQ tenfold (or a hundred fold or more)! What would happen if your IQ was suddenly not 130 but 1300? What are the implications for personality, human relationships, and character?  On a related note we have observed the privatisation of war in recent years (ie anyone can bring war to the streets of any city in the world by strapping on a bomb.) Combatants don’t have to be a signed up member of a military force, but just bear a grudge against their target. What will happen when technology enables everyone to have a planetary destruct button in their bedroom. Ian suggests this is a logical consequence of technological development and that such capability will exist by 2085.

It strikes me that now is the time to get some solid work done on moral leadership, robust character, resilient personality, before Shelley’s Frankenstein is unleashed.

Lest one think the conversation was one of doom and gloom, a meeting with Ian is always full of hope and excitement about the future.  Fresh from my meeting with the Major General I asked Ian about decision making processes, which generated some interesting discussions around game theory and the use of simulators and games to teach people decision making and to be able to test the consequences of their decisions. If you are looking for a new idea and have the skills, you may wish to start on this, because organisations need this now, and will adopt technology like this in the near future.

Mark Drewell is is CEO of the Globally Responsible Leadership Initiative, a Brussels based organisation that focuses on developing the next generation of responsible leaders. Mark made a keen observation: the presumption that growth would drive progress has been found to be wanting. We cannot continue to grow and consume the world’s resources at the rate we have been and there is more than enough wealth to go around. This begs a question: “what sort of world do we want to create with the resources that are available.”  Mark is from South Africa and points out that experience there proves business can be a force for the common good. This was music to my ears with the work we are doing at The Confidere Group.  He emphasises that business leaders need to become active in society. They need to drive the agenda of the future (and hence a link back to Lynda Gratton’s work above), and ask questions of the workforce and society about the kind of live we want to live and the kind of world we want to leave for our children. Merely framing our questions in a different way will deliver different outcomes.

Mark Palmer suggested a key skill for CEOs in the future would is the ability to “have a conversation in a pub.” Within this he is 0bserving not just the role, but the importance, of emotional intelligence. I have written of this elsewhere (email me via the contact page and I will send you the document).

… more to come, but getting on a plane now for Sydney via Singapore